Fans have become accustomed to watching this team roll through their 16 game schedule which usually involved a playoff game as well, with what looked like little to no effort exerted. This has been the pattern seen time and time again which has allowed the Colts to make the playoffs on regular basis.
Missing the playoff has been the exception rather than the rule, and they always had one ace up their sleeve, playing 6 games against the AFC South opponents. However, last season gave us a glimpse of what many teams experience on regular basis, a struggle within the division. Even if it was just one brief glimpse here is what transpired in the South. The team beat the Titans twice by a total of 8 points, split with Jaguars (getting blown out in one game 51-16), and split with the Texans (losing to Houston at home, the first time ever).
The Colts have consistently beaten up on their AFC South brethren, to the point that the team is usually pencilled into win the AFC South crown, which is a road to the playoffs. However, this coming season coupled with the results of last season seems to be painting a picture that is looking different from those days of domination in the AFC South. The Texans last season won the title largely in part due to their tough defense and smash mouth style of play. Continuing with this momentum, the Texans made moves on Wednesday to fix their quarterback situation by plucking free agent quarterback, Brock Osweiler, from the Denver Broncos along with a potent running back in Lamar Miller. This is just Houston, not to mention the Titans signing Matt Cassel to back up Marcus Mariotta, and Jacksonville with nearly $80 million in cap space will add a slew players and pick high in the draft to help bridge the gap. Suddenly the Colts don’t appear to be the dominant team.
Last season the Colts exhibited signs of success but also experienced NFL mortality and witnessed glimpses of what the rest of the NFL lives on day-to-day basis without a solid quarterback or line to protect it. The team finished a respectable 8-8, but that wasn’t good enough last year and presumedly by the moves Houston made, the bar will much higher to win the South going forward. It appears that the days are gone where the Colts could seemingly sleepwalk through these divisional games and somehow manage to pull out a win despite poor play. It looks like now they will have to be a complete team in all aspects. This includes the front office not missing on picks or free agents and the coaching staff not making poor in-game decisions. Plenty of blame can be passed around, but that doesn’t fix the issues at hand. I like the healing that seems to be happening inside the complex, especially concerning Grigson and Pagano. They have seemed to address whatever issues they might have had, and now seem to be exhibiting a renewed sense of unity compared to last season’s appearance of covering themselves from the others actions.
So, how does the AFC South look heading into 2016? I decided to make a chart in in key categories for each team in the division as to the way they currently stand. Here is the way I see it right now:
| Team | QB | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | COACH | FRONT OFFICE |
| COLTS | LUCK “A” | B | D | B | C |
| JAGUARS | BORTLES “B” | C | C | C | C |
| TEXANS | OSWEILER “B” | B | A | B | B |
| TITANS | MARIOTTA “B” | C | C | C | C |
A=5
B=4
C=3
D=2
F=1
COLTS=5+4+2+4+3=18, AVG. 3.6
JAGUARS=4+3+3+3+3=16, AVG. 3.2
TEXANS=4+4+5+4+4=21, AVG. 4.2
TITANS=4+3+3+3+3=16, AVG. 3.2
The number (my numbers) show that the Texans are currently an overall better team the Colts. Keep in mind that this is the way I see the teams as they stand right now. The draft and the rest of the free agency can change these numbers and I will revisit in the future to see how things play out. What also is interesting is that the Jaguars and the Titans are now much closer to the Colts. The biggest hit for the team looking at the numbers are the defensive ratings. The defense has been bad and has to change for them to realistically be the favorite of the division again.
So looking at everything, it appears that the days of easy wins and a wide gap in talent has suddenly closed and in the case of the Texans has either surpassed or drawn within striking distance of the Colts, depending upon how you assign the numbers. It’s not time to panic, but as I stated previously, the road through the AFC South is no longer a cake walk, it suddenly has become much more competitive. The team can still succeed, however the pad they used to have built-in has disappeared. Further compounding the issue is Luck’s relatively low cost is increasing and by next year will become of the largest in the league, reducing the amount the front office can spend in other areas. They will now have to earn the crown instead of backing in as in years past. Yes, the South is rising and the team better take heed.
